Who wins the Dakar Rally 2027?We forecast the FIA World Rally-Raid Championship and share all insights.
RaidRating gives every crew in the World Rally-Raid Championship a strength rating from its results, then simulates each round twenty thousand times to turn the ratings into win, podium and retirement probabilities. Independent, transparent and tested against what actually happened before anything is published.
The current top 5 picks for Dakar 2027
Current top 10 ratings
ALL CLASSES →Ultimate, after Rallye du Maroc. 1.00 is an average entrant.
Current top 10 ratings
ALL CLASSES →Stock, after Rallye du Maroc. 1.00 is an average entrant.
Current top 10 ratings
ALL CLASSES →Challenger, after Rallye du Maroc. 1.00 is an average entrant.
Current top 10 ratings
ALL CLASSES →SSV, after Rallye du Maroc. 1.00 is an average entrant.
Current top 10 ratings
ALL CLASSES →Masters, after Rallye du Maroc. 1.00 is an average entrant.
2026 championship
FULL TABLE →FIA World Rally-Raid Championship, Ultimate, after 4 of 5 rounds.
2026 championship
FULL TABLE →FIA World Rally-Raid Championship, Stock, after 4 of 5 rounds.
2026 championship
FULL TABLE →FIA World Rally-Raid Championship, Challenger, after 4 of 5 rounds.
2026 championship
FULL TABLE →FIA World Rally-Raid Championship, SSV, after 4 of 5 rounds.
2026 championship
FULL TABLE →FIA World Rally-Raid Championship, Masters, after 4 of 5 rounds.
Round 5 of 5, season finale
Rallye du Maroc 2026
Round four of five, Agadir to Zagora, five stages and the last long test before the Dakar. 112 entries, 56 of them in Ultimate, and Al-Attiyah and Loeb arrived three points apart in the championship.
Our pre-race Ultimate win probability: Nasser Al-Attiyah 18%, Sébastien Loeb 9%, Henk Lategan 8%
Open the resultsDakar 2027
The big one. Two weeks in January, the round the model trusts most, and the round whose very existence is in question this year. The forecast is live now and moves with every result until the ratings freeze in late December.
Ultimate win probability: Nasser Al-Attiyah 21%, Sébastien Loeb 9%, Henk Lategan 9%
Open the forecastThree steps from a results table to a probability
Every result since 2022
The FIA has published a championship table for every World Rally-Raid round since the series began. We collected all of them, 22 events and more than 400 driver-seasons across five titles, verified every recomputed total against the official one, and turned them into one results archive with a canonical identity for every crew.
Strength, not points
Each crew gets a Plackett-Luce strength rating fitted on two orderings per event: where it finished, and how many stage points it scored, because pace survives a puncture in the stage points long after it has vanished from the classification. Recent results count most, the Dakar counts 1.4 times a normal round, and a crew with three known results is rated on exactly those three.
Twenty thousand rallies
A round is run twenty thousand times with noise on every rating and retirements drawn from each crew's own record. Counting how often a crew wins, reaches the podium or finishes in the top five gives the probabilities. Sixty refits on resampled seasons give the ranges. Before anything ships it is backtested: the model had both recent Dakar winners in its top two picks.
The honest part: a five-day rally is close to a lottery. On the seventeen rally-length rounds since 2022 the model puts 16.5 per cent on the eventual winner against 9.3 for a blind guess. The Dakar is far more predictable. Every page says so, and no number here is betting advice.
Built by someone who has started these rallies
RaidRating is the project of Stephan, a hobby endurance athlete who has raced rally raid with his father for many years before he sat next to his mate Markus: the Rallye du Maroc twice, the Dakar in 2022, the BP Ultimate Rally-Raid Portugal in 2025 and several Bajas in Europe far from the works teams and right in the middle of the race most of the field is actually running.
The site grew out of a simple question asked in the bivouac: how predictable is this sport, really? The answer turned out to be interesting enough to publish. RaidRating is run as a project of Boost it GmbH, a Berlin growth agency, which is why the code, the data pipeline and the honesty about accuracy look the way they do. It is not affiliated with A.S.O., the FIA, the FIM or any team.
The ratings come from statistical prediction models, and AI does the work around them: collecting and checking the data, writing the pipeline, and testing every model change against past results before it ships.
Analysis, not news
Where will Dakar 2027 run? Our live forecast after the Saudi exit
A.S.O. has confirmed that Dakar 2027 leaves Saudi Arabia. Our live tracker rates every report on the new route and turns it into a forecast: 87 per cent that it runs 9 to 22 January from Europe through Morocco, 80 per cent for a start in Portugal's Algarve.
Read the analysis →Coming after Morocco: an accuracy review of the Rallye du Maroc forecast, and the driver-market question of where the Dacia crews land for the Dakar. All articles →